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This book, “What's the Worst That Could Happen,” can be characterized as a reconstruction of philosophers' research on the existential risk from an economist's perspective with an emphasis on politics and economics. The term “existential risk” refers to the risk that human civilization will be irretrievably destroyed.
 
Existential risk is distinguished between anthropogenic risk and natural risk. Natural risks are exemplified by past great extinctions, which could be caused by asteroid impacts or super-volcanoes. Anthropogenic risks cover infectious diseases, global warming, nuclear weapons, and super-intelligence. Among existential risk researchers, anthropogenic risks are considered a much greater threat than natural risks. This is because homo sapiens have survived for 2-300,000 years while being exposed to natural risks, so we can infer that the probability of natural risks is very low. On the other hand, anthropogenic risk has increased dramatically since the 20th century and is expected to increase further in the future.
 
This book discusses in detail why the probability of anthropogenic risk is high and what countermeasures can be taken.
 
First, with regard to infectious diseases (Chapter 2), as the sphere of human activity expands, encounters with unknown viruses are increasing. Furthermore, because of the dramatic improvement in bioengineering technology, man-made viruses may cause major infections.
 
In the discussion of global warming (Chapter 3), the unlikely but possible extreme consequences (tail risks) are particularly emphasized. In other words, we need to pay close attention to the possibility of a temperature increase of more than 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
 
Regarding nuclear weapons (Chapter 4), the author points out various human errors in the past and strategic relationships with “crazy-type” leaders that could go wrong, and he emphasizes that the peace based on mutually assured destruction is by no means perfect.
 
Regarding the risk of super-intelligence (artificial intelligence beyond human capabilities) harming humanity (Chapter 5), it is very difficult to make machines do things consistently with human values. The author stresses that we need to guarantee safety by having international agreements at an early stage.
 
After explaining the existential risks, the author's more fundamental concern is presented. It is the rise of populists and the retreat of democracy (Chapters 7-9). The author claims that populist governments tend to downplay the global and long-term commitment to the existential risk. As a countermeasure, he calls for improving democratic institutions. Many readers will be strongly impressed by the author's ardent defense of democracy.
 
With the pandemic still fresh in our minds, this book is timely. The book urges us not to tolerate politicians who make rash decisions and not to underestimate the risks that we know exist.
 

(Written by TAKAMI Norikazu, Associate Professor, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences / 2024)

Table of Contents

Related Info

Original Book
Andrew Leigh, What’s the Worst That Could Happen?: Existential Risk and Extreme Politics, The MIT Press, 2021.

 
Original Book Reviews:
By Bill McKibben, Angela Kane  (ACADEMY OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES IN AUSTRALIA)

 
By Gareth Evans “Serious risks: Meeting the challenge of global extinction”  (AUSTRALIAN BOOK REVIEW  March 2022)

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